Leave it to me to wait until after the NBA Finals to make my first NBA post. My only defense is that it was a horribly boring season and the upcoming draft is much more exciting than the games that were played in the last eight or so months. And that’s coming from a Spurs fan.
So, let’s break down this years draft. After reading columns written by so-called “insiders” (by “insiders” I mean the village idiots who contribute to ESPN.com), I have to say I’m pretty disappointed with their lack of insight and perspective regarding the first several picks. Then again, NBA General Managers have the same deficiencies, so who’s to blame? Once again, I’m left lamenting my own genius. Wow – I’m in a good mood today.
Since I have a day-job, and no one is going to read this anyway, I’ll limit this to the first ten picks.
1 – Portland Trailblazers
Likely Pick: Greg Oden
IYLTYL: (If You Like Then You’ll Like – for those who have never read a music review) David Robinson, Patrick Ewing
Other Options: Kevin Durant
2 – Seattle Supersonics
Likely Pick: Kevin Durant
IFLTYL: Tracy McGrady
Other options: Greg Oden (If Portland does something extremely stupid)
Breakdown: I’ll talk about these two picks together, since they are clearly in a different class than the rest of the draftees.
It has become fashionable among insiders to pick Durant as the better prospect. Chad Ford and Bill Simmons have said that Durant has more “upside” and that the 7-foot Oden has a ceiling, while the 6-foot, 9-inch Durant does not. This metaphor escapes me (or is it a euphemism, I’m never sure) but I’m pretty sure that they are talking out of their asses (euphemism, I think).
I love Durant. He had a great Freshman season and captured fans with his fluid game and his ad-selling smile. As good as he was, answer this – was he better than Carmelo Anthony was at Syracuse? Remember Melo? Same smile and a similar game, but Carmelo’s season ended in a National Championship. I think Durant will be a great player, but I really don’t think he’ll be as good as Lebron James or Carmelo Anthony, undoubtedly the two best small forwards drafted in the last 5 years. Even if he is, it won’t be for a while, and here’s why:
It will be 3 years before Durant can guard anybody. He’s not especially fast and he can barely bench press my 7-month old daughter. He absolutely cannot play the post. He also can’t guard anyone off the dribble. Since Seattle has no real big men, his exploited defense will lead to a lot of rim-rackers.
Oden has no question marks. Everyone on the planet knows his game is good enough to take a mediocre team into the playoffs. If that means he doesn’t have any upside, then fine, he also has no downside. After watching him abuse the second and third best big men in college basketball in the same game, it became clear that Oden would dominate the paint in the NBA. His combination of size, strength and athleticism is unmatched.
As complicated as everyone wants to make this pick, it’s very simple. If you have a crystal ball that says Kevin Durant will redefine the SF position and dominate the game like MJ did, then draft him first. If you think he’s a freakish combination of Tracy McGrady and Kevin Garnett, then take him second and hope you someday make it out of the first round of the playoffs. If you’ve been watching basketball for the last fifty years or so and you noticed that great big men often end up holding the big trophies at the end of the year, then take Oden.
3 – Atlanta Hawks
Likely Pick: Al Horford
IYLTYL: A kinder, gentler Zach Randolph, Elton Brand.
Other Options: Mike Conley, trade down.
Breakdown: This is an ironic year for Atlanta. For the last several years Atlanta has been criticized for passing up talented point guards for athletic yet unproven players with perceived “upside”. This year they have a great point guard in their sights, but they will probably be better off not taking him. Unlike previous draft picks, Horford is a proven commodity. Conley is my favorite player in the draft, but a solid big man gets Atlanta into the playoffs next year. Plus Acie Law III is gettable with the Hawks next pick. He can handle the ball and hit a shot, which is all they’ll need from the point. I say they either take Horford or package the pick with one or two of their 87 small forwards for Jermaine O’Neal or Zach Randolph (Randolph if they want game, O’Neal if they want leadership and marketability).
4 – Memphis Grizzlies
Likely Pick: Mike Conley
IFLTYL: Tony Parker, Kevin Johnson, Sam Cassel
Other Options: Yi Janlian, Brandon Wright, Corey Brewer
Breakdown: If the Grizz decide to keep Gasol then this is an easy pick. A core of Gasol, Gay, and Conley will be playoff contenders for years. Sometime in the next three years the Spurs will decline, Nash will retire and the Mavericks will implode. That will be perfect timing for this team to “come into their own.” If they deal Gasol, then things get complicated. Conley is still a solid pick, but if you’re blowing things up anyway gambling on Yi or Wright doesn’t seem like such a bad idea. After the dust settles I think Memphis holds onto Gasol and takes Conley.
5 – Boston Celtics
Likely Pick: Corey Brewer
IYLTYL: Teyshawn Prince
Other Options: Yi Janlian, trade
Breakdown: For the last several years Celtics GM Danny Ainge has been unable to decide if he wants to rebuild, or make a two-year run. This year he has to pick one and go with it. If Kevin Garnett is available, Al Jefferson and this pick are probably the only trade combination that Minny would pull the trigger on. If that doesn’t happen, then it’s time to rebuild completely. Take Brewer, and then deal Pierce for a solid younger player and a future number one (unprotected). I think this is what they’ll do. I’ll go out on a limb and say they make a deal that involves Corey Maggette.
6 – Milwaukee Bucks
Likely Pick: Yi Janlian
IYLTYL: Hopefully Chow Yun Phat from Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, or maybe Dirk Nowitski.
Other Options: Conley (if available), Jeff Green, Brandon Wright, trade
Breakdown: I feel bad for the Bucks. A top 4 pick really makes a difference on this team. They’re about as likeable as a team can be, but they hit some bad luck in the lottery. If Conley is available this low, they’ll take him and be thankful. If not, then this is probably the first gamble pick. They need a center who can let Bogut play the 4, but this is too high to pick Hawes. That said, Yi makes sense as a stretch here. Jeff Green is another decent pick just because Bobby Simmons has been either ineffective or inactive for the last two years. The safe bet might be to trade down and take Hawes, but I don’t know if they can get a favorable deal. That’s why I’m saying Yi.
7 – Minnesota Timberwolves
Likely Pick: Jeff Green
IYLTYL: Bobby Simmons, Shane Battier
Other Options: Brandon Wright, Joachim Noah, Julian Wright, trade
Breakdown: McHale will probably try very hard to deal this pick, but I don’t know if anyone is willing to have Marco Jaric’s contract dumped on them in return. If he keeps it he’ll probably take Jeff Green and plan another early May vacation. Green can jump in at small forward and really make an impact on defense. If he pans out in the first few months, then maybe it makes McHale feel better about rebuilding and trading KG mid-season. If he wants to stretch he can take Julian Wright, who has more scoring potential.
8 – Charlotte Hornets
Likely Pick: Joachim Noah
IYLTYL: Anderson Varejao
Other Options: One of the Wrights, Nick Young, Trade
More than anything, the Hornets need backcourt scoring, but noone available seems like a safe pick at this point. I think they deal this pick in a sign and trade with Seattle. If not they’ll take Joachim Noah, which is a big mistake. If you think Varejao is worthy of a top ten pick then maybe this is a good pick, but be aware that this is as good as Noah ever gets. Having a semi-famous dad who looks like a cross between Milly Vanilly and Lenny Kravitz only gets you so far, and this is it. Of course, if you’re smart you’ll just package this pick for Anderson Varejao and change and chuckle at how easy it was to get five quarters for a dollar bill.
9 – Chicago Bulls
Likely Pick: Brandon Wright
IYLTYL: Rasheed Wallace, Al Jefferson
Other Options: Spencer Hawes, Yi (if available)
Breakdown: The Bulls are a post player away from the Finals. Brandon Wright probably isn’t that player, but it’s not a stretch to take him just to see at this point. He’ll be surrounded by a positive core of young players and motivated veterans. Maybe that will be enough to get his motor going. There’s probably a good chance they take Hawes, but I’ll say Wright wins the coin flip.
10 – Sacramento Kings
Likely Pick: Who cares?
IYLTYL: The Clippers five years ago.
Other options: Spencer Hawes, Julian Wright, Nick Young
Breakdown: Seriously, is there a more irrelevant team in the NBA right now? They’re about two years late on getting anything for Bibby or Brad Miller, and their best player is about as marketable as a pair of Filas (do they still make shoes?). Top that off with the mess that is Ron Artest and it all adds up to being seriously screwed. Shareef Abdur-Raheem is the most legitimate asset they have, only because his contract is fair. I see them trying to package him in a deal to move up, but not getting anywhere. I think they have to take Julian Wright here just to add a little excitement to the bunch.
In case your wondering, I am accepting offers to be your team's GM. Also, I'm willing to do this as a "ghost-writer" type deal in case you want to keep your position, despite being very bad at it. i.e. Kevin McHale, Billy Knight
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Wednesday, April 4, 2007
Learning to Cope
After a good night’s sleep and some deep over-analytical thinking I was nearly over the basketball game where my Buckeyes were again defeated in a Bitch-Slapping manner by the Florida Gators in a national championship contest. After all, they simply did not deserve to win. There is some solace in going out big, as well. I mean 2 for 21 from the 3-point line (I’m not counting the two 3s in garbage time) is every bit as tantamountly abysmal as a Heisman-winning quarterback going 4 for 14 and turning it over twice inside the 10 yard line. In Buckeye land we don’t just lose, we blow it like no one else has ever blown it before.
It’s also comforting to know that history won’t remember these kinds of games. History remembers Georgetown losing to a backbreaking last second shot by a guy named Jordan. History remembers NC State catching a desperate air-ball and dunking it to beat Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olujuwan’s Houston team. At least I won’t be seeing a replay of that caliber for the next 50 years. History won’t care to recall the lovely tudor style, cul-de-sac home built by the bricks tossed up by Ivan Harris, Ron Lewis, and Jamar Butler. History will forget this game, and I should too.
I nearly choked on my enlightened sigh of relief when a strange thought came over me. This was technically a great year for Ohio State University Athletics. The football team had an undefeated regular season, defeated Michigan in what was one of the most highly anticipated games in the history of sports and produced a classy-cool Heisman winner. The basketball team landed a 7-foot phenom and his lightning quick sidekick, won the big ten, produced an All-American, and hit some dramatic shots to advance all the way to the NCAA championship. That’s an incredible year, but I can’t help but feel like this will go down as the worst year ever for OSU sports. That’s right, we finish #2 in both major sports and it’s the most heart-breaking year ever for buckeye fans everywhere. Why? Because we lost both games to the same team! Being number 2 is one thing, but losing to the same school is just gut wrenching. As awesome as this year was, it will be forgotten because of the uber-awesome year Florida has had. It is moot, meaningless, arbitrary. A negligible footnote. A future jeopardy question that no geeks will be able to answer.
I’m thinking there has to be a 12-step program for this, and the first step must be admitting that I am powerless over a 20-year-old kid’s ability to knock down a 21-foot jump shot. I cannot get beyond that step though. It must surely be easier to kick a crack habit than it is to stop feeling torturous pain every time the buckeyes make it so teasingly close to the pinnacle of greatness, only to be obliterated in their final challenge.
Maybe this is the way it has to be for Ohioans. To lose twice to the citrus capital of the world is a cruel and ironic tragedy of Shakespearian proportions. Just look at our climate: An inspiring fall that segues into a melancholy winter, which takes far too long to blossom into a far too short spring. That’s the way it is. Only so much joy for us. Not too much, not too little. It adds perspective and appreciation. Those are good things. After all, great men and women have come from Ohio. Great fruit has come from Florida. There is some solace in that. Not much, but some.
In the end this is probably my fault. My close friends probably remember that after the Buckeyes won the 2002 BCS Championship I rewarded them with a vow to cease all complaining about sports for 5 years. Well, this was the fifth season of that agreement and the sons-a-bitches broke me. Is this proof of a higher power? Another example of my incredibly bad luck? Or maybe just more evidence that I take this stuff far too seriously?
By the way. A workmate just walked into my office and told me he helped the local college with an engineering competition that took place last week. Ohio State came in second. Florida came in first. My tenuous grip on sanity is quickly losing its hold.
It’s also comforting to know that history won’t remember these kinds of games. History remembers Georgetown losing to a backbreaking last second shot by a guy named Jordan. History remembers NC State catching a desperate air-ball and dunking it to beat Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olujuwan’s Houston team. At least I won’t be seeing a replay of that caliber for the next 50 years. History won’t care to recall the lovely tudor style, cul-de-sac home built by the bricks tossed up by Ivan Harris, Ron Lewis, and Jamar Butler. History will forget this game, and I should too.
I nearly choked on my enlightened sigh of relief when a strange thought came over me. This was technically a great year for Ohio State University Athletics. The football team had an undefeated regular season, defeated Michigan in what was one of the most highly anticipated games in the history of sports and produced a classy-cool Heisman winner. The basketball team landed a 7-foot phenom and his lightning quick sidekick, won the big ten, produced an All-American, and hit some dramatic shots to advance all the way to the NCAA championship. That’s an incredible year, but I can’t help but feel like this will go down as the worst year ever for OSU sports. That’s right, we finish #2 in both major sports and it’s the most heart-breaking year ever for buckeye fans everywhere. Why? Because we lost both games to the same team! Being number 2 is one thing, but losing to the same school is just gut wrenching. As awesome as this year was, it will be forgotten because of the uber-awesome year Florida has had. It is moot, meaningless, arbitrary. A negligible footnote. A future jeopardy question that no geeks will be able to answer.
I’m thinking there has to be a 12-step program for this, and the first step must be admitting that I am powerless over a 20-year-old kid’s ability to knock down a 21-foot jump shot. I cannot get beyond that step though. It must surely be easier to kick a crack habit than it is to stop feeling torturous pain every time the buckeyes make it so teasingly close to the pinnacle of greatness, only to be obliterated in their final challenge.
Maybe this is the way it has to be for Ohioans. To lose twice to the citrus capital of the world is a cruel and ironic tragedy of Shakespearian proportions. Just look at our climate: An inspiring fall that segues into a melancholy winter, which takes far too long to blossom into a far too short spring. That’s the way it is. Only so much joy for us. Not too much, not too little. It adds perspective and appreciation. Those are good things. After all, great men and women have come from Ohio. Great fruit has come from Florida. There is some solace in that. Not much, but some.
In the end this is probably my fault. My close friends probably remember that after the Buckeyes won the 2002 BCS Championship I rewarded them with a vow to cease all complaining about sports for 5 years. Well, this was the fifth season of that agreement and the sons-a-bitches broke me. Is this proof of a higher power? Another example of my incredibly bad luck? Or maybe just more evidence that I take this stuff far too seriously?
By the way. A workmate just walked into my office and told me he helped the local college with an engineering competition that took place last week. Ohio State came in second. Florida came in first. My tenuous grip on sanity is quickly losing its hold.
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
Well, my Buckeyes got the living snot beat out of them on Monday night and if that doesn't deserve a blog entry, I don't know what does. Here are some random thoughts...
This was the first OSU game I've ever seen where Jim Tressel was out-coached. His offensive stubbornness was reminiscent of the John Cooper era. The O-Line could not hold a block, but the offense kept running 15 yard routes. Smith was often pressured before his receivers even ended their routes. Gonzalas must have run the same 15 yard out route 10 times in a row. Wonder why he never got open? For the first half this was fine. I was surprised by our inability to block Florida's ends, but it was a reality and needed to be dealt with. Problem is, nothing changed in the second half.
On the other side of the line Urban Meyer prepared a perfect offensive scheme. Florida's O-Line was shaky all season, so he ran nothing but 5-yard crossing routes and wide receiver screens the entire game. This took OSU's pass rush out of the game. The linebackers didn't adjust and left the middle of the field wide open. Atleast they fixed their issues after the half. They changed to a 3-man front and cheated their linebackers. As a result they only allowed 70 passing yards and one score after the half.
Also, can someone tell me why we ran three pass plays from the shotgun after we scored a touchdown on power running in the second quarter?
I personally think that Tressel gave up after the fourth down call in the second quarter. I can't say I blame him much either. If we can't get one yard in two plays then we don't deserve to win that game. I agree with the call, but everyone knew it was a make or break play, and we broke.
Don't get me wrong. I don't think the Buckeyes were the better team, but the coaching definitely didn't help.
Another thought...
What does this do to Troy Smith's draft status? This game definitely exposed some flaws. Some, like the poor accuracy (his throws were way off), could be attributed to nerves or time off. Others, though, are more substantial. Take for instance his complete lack of an internal clock. I don't know how many times he stayed in the pocket for more than five seconds without either stepping up and taking off, or throwing the ball away. On the other side Chris Leak seemed to count to three and throw it away if he didn't see anything. I know Troy wasn't used to having his Line collapse on him like that, but he needs to know when it's time to get rid of the ball.
While were talking about QBs...
I liked Brady Quinn better when his name was Ron Pawlus. Seriously, should we be impressed that this kid throws for 300 yards against the military schools? Every time he played a ranked team he looked like... well, a losing quarterback. I can't believe he's being considered for the #1 pick. This has Heath Shuler written all over it.
I do have to admit that as a Columbus native I'm pretty biased against anyone from Dublin, OH (or "RICHWHITEKIDVILLE" as I like to call it). Here's a quick story to explain why - When I was 19 I had a crappy job as a grass roots canvasser for a political organization. One day we canvassed a predominately black neighborhood in East Columbus. It was a nice neighborhood full of nice people. Women would let me in their homes, give me juice and candy, show me pictures of their kids and talk about where they wanted to go to school. The men would stand on the porch and talk sports and eventually tell me they appreciated what I was doing. It was a proud neighborhood. Anyway, about 45 minutes into my route this kid from Dublin - we'll call him Bill, not for anonymity, but because I never cared to remember his name - came sprinting toward me. He was sweating and scared shitless.
"Chris," he said. "These black guys were going to beat me up."
I knew enough to know that this wasn't that bad of a neighborhood, so I didn't really believe him. I let him walk my route with me anyway. Eventually we went to the house that caused his hysteria. Three teenagers were sitting on the porch drinking sodas. Nothing intimidating, but Bill going nuts. I wanted to show him how stupid he was, so I walked right up to the door and the kids greeted me just fine. They looked at Bill with a casual disdain and said to me, "Your friend don't like black people does he?"
"He's from Dublin," I said, and they immediately understood. They went and got their parents and I ended up with an ice cream bar and soda. I didn't get one for Bill.
Later Bill and I were talking and he said, "Man, I'm sorry, but I had never actually met a black person before."
I couldn't freaking believe it. This guy was 19 years old.
"Didn't you have any black friends in high school?" I asked.
He stared back amazed and said, "No! We didn't have any black kids at our school. Did you?!"
That's Dublin.
This was the first OSU game I've ever seen where Jim Tressel was out-coached. His offensive stubbornness was reminiscent of the John Cooper era. The O-Line could not hold a block, but the offense kept running 15 yard routes. Smith was often pressured before his receivers even ended their routes. Gonzalas must have run the same 15 yard out route 10 times in a row. Wonder why he never got open? For the first half this was fine. I was surprised by our inability to block Florida's ends, but it was a reality and needed to be dealt with. Problem is, nothing changed in the second half.
On the other side of the line Urban Meyer prepared a perfect offensive scheme. Florida's O-Line was shaky all season, so he ran nothing but 5-yard crossing routes and wide receiver screens the entire game. This took OSU's pass rush out of the game. The linebackers didn't adjust and left the middle of the field wide open. Atleast they fixed their issues after the half. They changed to a 3-man front and cheated their linebackers. As a result they only allowed 70 passing yards and one score after the half.
Also, can someone tell me why we ran three pass plays from the shotgun after we scored a touchdown on power running in the second quarter?
I personally think that Tressel gave up after the fourth down call in the second quarter. I can't say I blame him much either. If we can't get one yard in two plays then we don't deserve to win that game. I agree with the call, but everyone knew it was a make or break play, and we broke.
Don't get me wrong. I don't think the Buckeyes were the better team, but the coaching definitely didn't help.
Another thought...
What does this do to Troy Smith's draft status? This game definitely exposed some flaws. Some, like the poor accuracy (his throws were way off), could be attributed to nerves or time off. Others, though, are more substantial. Take for instance his complete lack of an internal clock. I don't know how many times he stayed in the pocket for more than five seconds without either stepping up and taking off, or throwing the ball away. On the other side Chris Leak seemed to count to three and throw it away if he didn't see anything. I know Troy wasn't used to having his Line collapse on him like that, but he needs to know when it's time to get rid of the ball.
While were talking about QBs...
I liked Brady Quinn better when his name was Ron Pawlus. Seriously, should we be impressed that this kid throws for 300 yards against the military schools? Every time he played a ranked team he looked like... well, a losing quarterback. I can't believe he's being considered for the #1 pick. This has Heath Shuler written all over it.
I do have to admit that as a Columbus native I'm pretty biased against anyone from Dublin, OH (or "RICHWHITEKIDVILLE" as I like to call it). Here's a quick story to explain why - When I was 19 I had a crappy job as a grass roots canvasser for a political organization. One day we canvassed a predominately black neighborhood in East Columbus. It was a nice neighborhood full of nice people. Women would let me in their homes, give me juice and candy, show me pictures of their kids and talk about where they wanted to go to school. The men would stand on the porch and talk sports and eventually tell me they appreciated what I was doing. It was a proud neighborhood. Anyway, about 45 minutes into my route this kid from Dublin - we'll call him Bill, not for anonymity, but because I never cared to remember his name - came sprinting toward me. He was sweating and scared shitless.
"Chris," he said. "These black guys were going to beat me up."
I knew enough to know that this wasn't that bad of a neighborhood, so I didn't really believe him. I let him walk my route with me anyway. Eventually we went to the house that caused his hysteria. Three teenagers were sitting on the porch drinking sodas. Nothing intimidating, but Bill going nuts. I wanted to show him how stupid he was, so I walked right up to the door and the kids greeted me just fine. They looked at Bill with a casual disdain and said to me, "Your friend don't like black people does he?"
"He's from Dublin," I said, and they immediately understood. They went and got their parents and I ended up with an ice cream bar and soda. I didn't get one for Bill.
Later Bill and I were talking and he said, "Man, I'm sorry, but I had never actually met a black person before."
I couldn't freaking believe it. This guy was 19 years old.
"Didn't you have any black friends in high school?" I asked.
He stared back amazed and said, "No! We didn't have any black kids at our school. Did you?!"
That's Dublin.
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