NBA Draft Breakdown

Leave it to me to wait until after the NBA Finals to make my first NBA post. My only defense is that it was a horribly boring season and the upcoming draft is much more exciting than the games that were played in the last eight or so months. And that’s coming from a Spurs fan.

So, let’s break down this years draft. After reading columns written by so-called “insiders” (by “insiders” I mean the village idiots who contribute to ESPN.com), I have to say I’m pretty disappointed with their lack of insight and perspective regarding the first several picks. Then again, NBA General Managers have the same deficiencies, so who’s to blame? Once again, I’m left lamenting my own genius. Wow – I’m in a good mood today.

Since I have a day-job, and no one is going to read this anyway, I’ll limit this to the first ten picks.


1 – Portland Trailblazers

Likely Pick: Greg Oden

IYLTYL: (If You Like Then You’ll Like – for those who have never read a music review) David Robinson, Patrick Ewing

Other Options: Kevin Durant

2 – Seattle Supersonics

Likely Pick: Kevin Durant

IFLTYL: Tracy McGrady

Other options: Greg Oden (If Portland does something extremely stupid)

Breakdown: I’ll talk about these two picks together, since they are clearly in a different class than the rest of the draftees.

It has become fashionable among insiders to pick Durant as the better prospect. Chad Ford and Bill Simmons have said that Durant has more “upside” and that the 7-foot Oden has a ceiling, while the 6-foot, 9-inch Durant does not. This metaphor escapes me (or is it a euphemism, I’m never sure) but I’m pretty sure that they are talking out of their asses (euphemism, I think).

I love Durant. He had a great Freshman season and captured fans with his fluid game and his ad-selling smile. As good as he was, answer this – was he better than Carmelo Anthony was at Syracuse? Remember Melo? Same smile and a similar game, but Carmelo’s season ended in a National Championship. I think Durant will be a great player, but I really don’t think he’ll be as good as Lebron James or Carmelo Anthony, undoubtedly the two best small forwards drafted in the last 5 years. Even if he is, it won’t be for a while, and here’s why:

It will be 3 years before Durant can guard anybody. He’s not especially fast and he can barely bench press my 7-month old daughter. He absolutely cannot play the post. He also can’t guard anyone off the dribble. Since Seattle has no real big men, his exploited defense will lead to a lot of rim-rackers.

Oden has no question marks. Everyone on the planet knows his game is good enough to take a mediocre team into the playoffs. If that means he doesn’t have any upside, then fine, he also has no downside. After watching him abuse the second and third best big men in college basketball in the same game, it became clear that Oden would dominate the paint in the NBA. His combination of size, strength and athleticism is unmatched.

As complicated as everyone wants to make this pick, it’s very simple. If you have a crystal ball that says Kevin Durant will redefine the SF position and dominate the game like MJ did, then draft him first. If you think he’s a freakish combination of Tracy McGrady and Kevin Garnett, then take him second and hope you someday make it out of the first round of the playoffs. If you’ve been watching basketball for the last fifty years or so and you noticed that great big men often end up holding the big trophies at the end of the year, then take Oden.

3 – Atlanta Hawks

Likely Pick: Al Horford

IYLTYL: A kinder, gentler Zach Randolph, Elton Brand.

Other Options: Mike Conley, trade down.

Breakdown: This is an ironic year for Atlanta. For the last several years Atlanta has been criticized for passing up talented point guards for athletic yet unproven players with perceived “upside”. This year they have a great point guard in their sights, but they will probably be better off not taking him. Unlike previous draft picks, Horford is a proven commodity. Conley is my favorite player in the draft, but a solid big man gets Atlanta into the playoffs next year. Plus Acie Law III is gettable with the Hawks next pick. He can handle the ball and hit a shot, which is all they’ll need from the point. I say they either take Horford or package the pick with one or two of their 87 small forwards for Jermaine O’Neal or Zach Randolph (Randolph if they want game, O’Neal if they want leadership and marketability).

4 – Memphis Grizzlies

Likely Pick: Mike Conley

IFLTYL: Tony Parker, Kevin Johnson, Sam Cassel

Other Options: Yi Janlian, Brandon Wright, Corey Brewer

Breakdown: If the Grizz decide to keep Gasol then this is an easy pick. A core of Gasol, Gay, and Conley will be playoff contenders for years. Sometime in the next three years the Spurs will decline, Nash will retire and the Mavericks will implode. That will be perfect timing for this team to “come into their own.” If they deal Gasol, then things get complicated. Conley is still a solid pick, but if you’re blowing things up anyway gambling on Yi or Wright doesn’t seem like such a bad idea. After the dust settles I think Memphis holds onto Gasol and takes Conley.

5 – Boston Celtics

Likely Pick: Corey Brewer

IYLTYL: Teyshawn Prince

Other Options: Yi Janlian, trade

Breakdown: For the last several years Celtics GM Danny Ainge has been unable to decide if he wants to rebuild, or make a two-year run. This year he has to pick one and go with it. If Kevin Garnett is available, Al Jefferson and this pick are probably the only trade combination that Minny would pull the trigger on. If that doesn’t happen, then it’s time to rebuild completely. Take Brewer, and then deal Pierce for a solid younger player and a future number one (unprotected). I think this is what they’ll do. I’ll go out on a limb and say they make a deal that involves Corey Maggette.

6 – Milwaukee Bucks

Likely Pick: Yi Janlian

IYLTYL: Hopefully Chow Yun Phat from Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, or maybe Dirk Nowitski.

Other Options: Conley (if available), Jeff Green, Brandon Wright, trade

Breakdown: I feel bad for the Bucks. A top 4 pick really makes a difference on this team. They’re about as likeable as a team can be, but they hit some bad luck in the lottery. If Conley is available this low, they’ll take him and be thankful. If not, then this is probably the first gamble pick. They need a center who can let Bogut play the 4, but this is too high to pick Hawes. That said, Yi makes sense as a stretch here. Jeff Green is another decent pick just because Bobby Simmons has been either ineffective or inactive for the last two years. The safe bet might be to trade down and take Hawes, but I don’t know if they can get a favorable deal. That’s why I’m saying Yi.

7 – Minnesota Timberwolves

Likely Pick: Jeff Green

IYLTYL: Bobby Simmons, Shane Battier

Other Options: Brandon Wright, Joachim Noah, Julian Wright, trade

Breakdown: McHale will probably try very hard to deal this pick, but I don’t know if anyone is willing to have Marco Jaric’s contract dumped on them in return. If he keeps it he’ll probably take Jeff Green and plan another early May vacation. Green can jump in at small forward and really make an impact on defense. If he pans out in the first few months, then maybe it makes McHale feel better about rebuilding and trading KG mid-season. If he wants to stretch he can take Julian Wright, who has more scoring potential.

8 – Charlotte Hornets

Likely Pick: Joachim Noah

IYLTYL: Anderson Varejao

Other Options: One of the Wrights, Nick Young, Trade

More than anything, the Hornets need backcourt scoring, but noone available seems like a safe pick at this point. I think they deal this pick in a sign and trade with Seattle. If not they’ll take Joachim Noah, which is a big mistake. If you think Varejao is worthy of a top ten pick then maybe this is a good pick, but be aware that this is as good as Noah ever gets. Having a semi-famous dad who looks like a cross between Milly Vanilly and Lenny Kravitz only gets you so far, and this is it. Of course, if you’re smart you’ll just package this pick for Anderson Varejao and change and chuckle at how easy it was to get five quarters for a dollar bill.

9 – Chicago Bulls

Likely Pick: Brandon Wright

IYLTYL: Rasheed Wallace, Al Jefferson

Other Options: Spencer Hawes, Yi (if available)

Breakdown: The Bulls are a post player away from the Finals. Brandon Wright probably isn’t that player, but it’s not a stretch to take him just to see at this point. He’ll be surrounded by a positive core of young players and motivated veterans. Maybe that will be enough to get his motor going. There’s probably a good chance they take Hawes, but I’ll say Wright wins the coin flip.

10 – Sacramento Kings

Likely Pick: Who cares?

IYLTYL: The Clippers five years ago.

Other options: Spencer Hawes, Julian Wright, Nick Young

Breakdown: Seriously, is there a more irrelevant team in the NBA right now? They’re about two years late on getting anything for Bibby or Brad Miller, and their best player is about as marketable as a pair of Filas (do they still make shoes?). Top that off with the mess that is Ron Artest and it all adds up to being seriously screwed. Shareef Abdur-Raheem is the most legitimate asset they have, only because his contract is fair. I see them trying to package him in a deal to move up, but not getting anywhere. I think they have to take Julian Wright here just to add a little excitement to the bunch.

In case your wondering, I am accepting offers to be your team's GM. Also, I'm willing to do this as a "ghost-writer" type deal in case you want to keep your position, despite being very bad at it. i.e. Kevin McHale, Billy Knight